Future Warfare Studies, Global Trends, Future Conflict Studies, Scenarios, RMA, Alternative Futures, Military Innovation, Strategic Military Future Studies
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See also:
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Quotes
Don't panic!
--- Arthur C. Clarke, when asked "If you could tell people one thing, just one thing, what would that be?" [from interview published in The Futurist, July-Aug 2008]
I believe one should be optimistic [about the future] because there is a chance of a good self-fulfilling prophecy. It is dangerous to be pessimistic because that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, but a bad one.
--- Arthur C. Clarke, [from interview published in The Futurist, July-Aug 2008]
A man who wants to make a good instrument must first have a precise understanding of what the instrument is to be used for; and he who intends to build a good instrument of war must first ask himself what the next war will be like.
--- General Giulio Douhet, 1928
Victory will smile upon those who anticipate changes in the character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after changes occur.
--- General Giulio Douhet, in The Command of the Air, 1921
The knowledge society requires people who can reach good decisions, cope with new environments and spot new rules—human and physical—as the world changes.
--- Sir Douglas Hague, Beyond Universities: A New Republic of the Intellect, 1991
The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
--- Theodore Hook
Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.
--- Marcus Aurelius Antoninus, Roman Emperor (121 - 180 A.D.)
The illiterate of the future will not be the person who cannot read. It will be the person who does not know how to learn.
--- Alvin Toffler
The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet.
--- William Gibson
If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible he is almost certainly right, but if he says that it is impossible he is very probably wrong.
--- Arthur C. Clarke
As the births of living creatures, at first, are ill-shapen: so are all Innovations, which are the births of time.
--- Francis Bacon
We must beware of needless innovation, especially when guided by logic.
--- Winston Churchill
An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way by gradually winning over and converting its opponents: What does happen is that the opponents gradually die out.
--- Max Planck
We have no right to assume that any physical laws exist, or if they have existed up until now, that they will continue to exist in a similar manner in the future.
--- Max Planck
Even for the physicist the description in plain language will be a criterion of the degree of understanding that has been reached.
--- Werner Karl Heisenberg
Too often we forget that genius, too, depends upon the data within its reach, that even Archimedes could not have devised Edison's inventions.
--- Ernest Dimnet
We are prisoners of our own metaphors, metaphorically speaking...
--- R. Buckminster Fuller
Keep on the lookout for novel ideas that others have used successfully.Your idea has to be original only in its adaptation to the problem you're working on.
--- Thomas Edison
I have more respect for the fellow with a single idea who gets there than for the fellow with a thousand ideas who does nothing.
--- Thomas Edison
I'm looking for a lot of men who have an infinite capacity to not know what can't be done.
--- Henry Ford
The empires of the future are the empires of the mind.
--- Winston Churchill
One problem with gazing too frequently into the past is that we may turn around to find the future has run out on us.
--- Michael Cibenko
A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past, he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future.
--- Sidney J. Harris
Strategic Visions
See also Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Reports
See also Transformation of War page
See also National Strategies - Security, Cyber, WMD, Homeland Security and the rest
A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq, RAND report, 2007
SecDef speech on Transformation, 31 Jan 02 (local copy)
Deputy SecDef Wolfowitz Testimony to the Senate on Transformation, 9 Apr Jan 02, (local copy)
Professional Military Education in 2020, from SpaceCast 2020 project, condensed for Airpower Journal
"Leading Through Change," by Blanchard, in Corporate Training, June 2004
The first concern of a successful, ethically run company is 'Vision'. There are three parts to this - a good vision comprises:
A customer-focused goal
A picture of what success looks like
A clear understanding of the operating values that will achieve that success.
National/Joint
See also DoD transformation
See also National Strategies - Security, Cyber, WMD, Homeland Security, and the rest
See also National Defense Strategy (NDS)
See also National Military Strategy (NMS)
Exploration and Development of the National Conflict Studies Institute Concept (local copy), 22 Mar 2005 report prepared for DTRA
Future Warfare Visions, EXCELLENTincludes Joint Operations Concepts (JOpsC), future visions of the individual services, transformation plans, campaign planning experiments, joint functional concepts, and more
Capstone Concept for Joint Operations, version 2.0, August 2005
The Capstone Concept for Joint Operations (CCJO) heads the family of joint operations concepts (JOpsC) that describe how joint forces are expected to operate across the range of military operations in 2012-2025.
Today’s joint force is transforming even while executing Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM. In this Capstone Concept for Joint Operations (CCJO), we incorporate the lessons gleaned from those conflicts while looking to the future to examine the capabilities we will need to fight
tomorrow’s wars.
The CCJO revision includes an increased awareness and appreciation for the fact that integrating the full spectrum of military efforts with all other
instruments of national power is essential to the achievement of national objectives.
The CCJO lists three fundamental actions that provide potential commonality for integrating joint force efforts with those of interagency and multinational partners.
Joint Operations Concepts (JOpsC), Nov 2003 (local copy)
This document articulates the overarching concept that describes the conduct of future joint military operations. It defines the construct for the development of subordinate operating, functional and enabling concepts that will identify emerging capabilities across the domains of air, land, sea, space and information. It is transformational and will act as the genesis for new ideas and concepts hence the name "Joint Operations Concepts."
Joint Operating Concepts
archive
Joint Vision 2020 (local copy of text only) - replaced by the joint operations concepts linked to above
Joint Vision 2010 (local copy)
Competition, War & Transformation: Interagency Framework for Operational Planning and Force Development (local copy), June 2004 briefing by Kiefer, Joint Staff J7
For full benefit, download the slideshow and view locally so you can view the notes which accompany many of the individual slides
Purpose: discuss concept elements which are missing or not fully developed in current JOpsC family of concepts
Agenda
Freedom of Action
Dimensions of Competition
Fires & Maneuver
Principles of War
Legitimacy
Definitions
Principles of Transformation
Sense-Making
National Security Council (NSC)
National Security Strategies [this link will always have the current NSS]
Bush
National Security Strategy of the United States, Mar 2006 (local copy)
National Security Strategy of the United States, Sep 2002 (local copy)
Clinton
A National Security Strategy for A Global Age, Dec 2000 (local copy, HTML) (local copy, single PDF)
A National Security Strategy for A New Century, Dec 1999 preface (local copy) and Full document (Local Copy, .pdf) (Local Copy, .htm)
A National Security Strategy for A New Century, Oct 1998 (local copy)
A National Security Strategy for A New Century, May 1997 (local copy)
A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, Feb 1996 (local copy)
A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement, Feb 1995 (local copy)
Bush
National Security Strategy of the United States, August 1991 (local copy)
Reagan
National Security Strategy of the United States, May 1982 (local copy)
Truman
NSC 68: United States Objectives and Programs for National Security, April 1950 [Cold War strategy]
IV. The Underlying Conflict in the Realm of ideas and Values between the U.S. Purpose and the Kremlin Design
V. Soviet Intentions and Capabilities--Actual and Potential - includes intelligence estimate of fission bomb stockpile in USSR, and comparison of US and USSR production for steel, aluminum, electric power, and crude oil
See Studies online below, especially Hart-Rudman
Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986 (local copy) - U.S. Code, Title 10, Subtitle A, Part I, Chapter 5.
Posture Statements by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Posture Statement of Gen Peter Pace, USMC (local copy), 6 Feb 2007
Posture Statement of Gen Peter Pace, USMC (local copy), 7 Feb 2006
Posture Statement of Gen Richard B. Myers, USAF (local copy), 16,17 Feb 2005 (HTML)
Posture Statement of Gen Richard B. Myers, USAF (local copy), 3 Feb 2004
Posture Statement of Gen Richard B. Myers, USAF (local copy), 5 Feb 2003
Posture Statement of Gen Richard B. Myers, USAF (local copy), 21 May 2002
Annual Reports to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF
2005 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF
2004 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF
2003 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF
2002 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF
2001 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF (Local Copy, main report and Local Copy, appendices)
2000 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF (local copy)
1999 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF
1998 Annual Report to the Pres. and Congress, by SECDEF
Defense, The Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review, 2001 (local copy)
Defense, The Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review, 1997
Army
See also Army transformation
Army Transformation Roadmap
The Army Vision
Army Vision 2010
Army Posture Statements
Army Posture Statement, 2008 (local copy)
Army Posture Statement, 2007
Army Posture Statement, 2006
Army Posture Statement, 2005
Army Posture Statement, 2004
Army Posture Statement, 2003
Army Posture Statement, 2002
U.S. Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC), formerly known as TRADOC Futures Center or Army Futures Center
The Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC) is the Army's leader in the identification, design, development, and synchronization of capabilities into the Army current Modular Force and the future Modular Force, bringing together all the Army agencies as well as Joint, Multinational and other DoD agencies to manage rapid change. The ARCIC supports TRADOC in providing adaptive Soldiers, leaders and units by contributing to the development of doctrine, TTPs, and the collective training experience.
Proteus Management Group, U. S. Army, Carlisle Barracks, Penn.
"The Proteus Management Group (PMG) will promote further discourse, study and research, focusing on the refinement, development and application of Proteus Insights (PI) and other PI related new and emerging “futures” concepts, methods, processes and scenarios...."
Navy
See also Navy transformation
Department of the Navy Objectives, and CNO Guidance
A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (local copy), Oct 2007 - maritime strategy for Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard
Naval Transformation Roadmap, 2003 (local copy)
A 21st Century Navy slide show
Sea Power for a new Era - A Program Guide to the U.S. Navy [Formerly called Vision, Presence, Power]
2006 Edition
Vision, Presence, Power - A Program Guide to the U.S. Navy
2005 Edition
2004 Edition
2002 Edition
2000 Edition
1999 Edition
1998 Edition
SecNav FY09 Posture Statement, Mar 2008 (local copy)
SecNav FY08 Posture Statement, Mar 2007 (local copy)
SecNav Posture Statement, Mar 2006 (local copy)
America's 21st Century Force - Navy Posture Statement
Naval Power 21 (local copy) - A Naval Vision (2002)
2000 Edition
1999 Edition
Forward ... From the Sea: Anytime, Anywhere, 1998 Posture Statement
Enduring Impact ... From the Sea, 1997 Posture Statement
Forward ... From the Sea, the Navy Operational Concept (local copy) (3/97)
"...From the Sea" (local copy)(9/92)
"The OpNav Assessment Process" (local copy) (5/93)
"Naval Forward Presence ... Essential for a Changing World" (local copy) (5/93)
"Carriers for Force 2001" (local copy) (5/93)
"Force Sustainment" (local copy) (5/93)
"Joint Operations ...From the Sea" (local copy) (5/93)
"Working with Other Nations" (local copy) (10/93)
"Navy Medicine .. Shaping the Change" (local copy) (5/94)
"Forward ... From the Sea" (local copy) (11/94) The update to the original document
"Partnership ... From the Sea" (local copy) Remarks by Adm. J. M. Boorda, 6 Nov 1995
Marine Corps
See also Marine transformation
Marine Corps Vision & Strategy 2025
Marine Posture Statement 2004 (local copy)
A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (local copy), Oct 2007 - maritime strategy for Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard
July 2001 Testimony by USMC Commandant to HASC (local copy)
Strategy 21 (local copy), Nov 2000, 1.6 Mb PDF
Air Force
See also Air Force transformation
Air Force StrategyNet with key AF strategic documents
CSAF White Paper, 29 Dec 2007 (local copy)
This White Paper charts U.S. Air Force strategy for the next two decades and defines the Air Force’s indispensable role in promoting and defending the national interest. In framing the strategic imperatives that face the United States and its Air Force, the paper lays out the urgent actions required to cope with today's and tomorrow's challenges. Accordingly, this White Paper is a definitive statement of Air Force intent to maintain its role as the guardian of America's freedom, security and prosperity—the Nation's force of first and last resort.
Air Force Strategic Plan, 2006 - 2008 (local copy, 5 Mb)
Air Force Vision 2006 (local copy)
Air Force Handbook 2007 (local copy)
Air Force Roadmap 2006-2025 (local copy)
The Edge - 2005 Air Force Transformation (local copy)
Air Force Transformation Flight Plan, 2004 (local copy)
Air Force Transformation Flight Plan, 2003 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement
Air Force Posture Statement 2008 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2007 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2006 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2005 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2004 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2003 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2002 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2001 (local copy)
Air Force Posture Statement 2000 (local copy)
USAF Core Values
Little Blue Book, Online
AF 2025 Final Report, including monographs on alternative futures and value-focused thinking
SpaceCast 2020 Final Report
New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st Century, Summary Volume (local copy), by AF Scientific Advisory Board
Coast Guard
See also Coast Guard transformation
A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower (local copy), Oct 2007 - maritime strategy for Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard
Coast Guard 2020
Global and Regional Trends
See State Department - patterns of global terrorism and other counterterrorism reports at the Center for Terrorism Studies
See Missile Threats at the USAF Counterproliferation Center
See Threat Analysis & Threat Assessment on Intelligence page
See failed and failing states on International Relations page
See international statistics such as by-country age distribution, HIV/AIDS numbers, projected population, etc. - on International Relations reference page
See alternative futures and other views/methods below
Advisory Committee on Transformational Diplomacy: Final Report of the State Department in 2025 Working Group (local copy)
A Demographic Theory of War: Population, power, and the 'slightly weird' ideas of Gunnar Heinsohn, by Clark Whelton, in the Daily Standard, 5 Oct 07
Global Strategic Trends Programme, report by UK Ministry of Defence, includes current year through 2030 and beyond
Imagining the Internet: a History and Forecast, Elon University & Pew Internet Project - surveys of social and technology leaders about their thoughts on the impact and future of the internet
World Global Trends, extracts from major reports and key findings
 The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications, by Silverglitt et al, RAND Technical Report, 2006
The Global Technology Revolution 2020, Executive Summary: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications
, RAND study, 2006
global population issues and trends and their impact - variety of repots from RAND
Shell Global Scenarios 2025 - executive summary and excerpts available online
People and Connections - Shell Global Scenarios to 2020 - public summary
The Strategic Implications of the Rise of Populism in Europe and South America (local copy), by Ropp, Strategic Studies Institute, June 2005
review of Blueprint for Action, by Barnett - detailed review by Richards at DNI
The Pentagon's New Map, by Barnett, at Naval War College -- includes discussion of the dangers of the "Gap"
"Show me where globalization is thick with network connectivity, financial transactions, liberal media flows, and collective security, and I will show you regions featuring stable governments, rising standards of living, and more deaths by suicide than murder. These parts of the world I call the Functioning Core, or Core. But show me where globalization is thinning or just plain absent, and I will show you regions plagued by politically repressive regimes, widespread poverty and disease, routine mass murder, and-most important-the chronic conflicts that incubate the next generation of global terrorists. These parts of the world I call the Non-Integrating Gap, or Gap."
The Plague of Ideas, by Peters, in Parameters, Winter 2000
"Yet, the greatest "transnational threat" is the closest kin to our brightest hopes. Of all the dangers globalization brings, none is so immediate, so destabilizing, and so irresistibly contagious as the onslaught of information--a plague of ideas, good and bad, immune to quarantine or ready cures, under whose assault those societies, states, and even civilizations without acquired resistance to informational disorders will shatter irreparably."
Trends in Security Competition (local copy, 1.5 Mb), June 2004 briefing by Cebrowski, DoD Office of Force Transformation
slide 6 is a chart with vulnerability and likelihood as axes, listing the four challenges
traditional
irregular
catastrophic
disruptive
Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future (local copy), Mar 2005, National Intelligence Council (NIC)
The National Intelligence Council recently convened a group of top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa to discuss likely trends in the region over the next 15 years. The group discussed several major issues or drivers that will affect Africa, including globalization and its impact on political development and economic growth, patterns of conflict, terrorism, democratization, AIDS, evolving foreign influences, and religion.
National Security Agency’s project—Tech 2020—"also helped identify key technology convergences expected to impact society between now and 2020" - quote from NIC 2020 "Mapping the Global Future" project below, on the Methodologies page
NIC 2020 Project, National Intelligence Council - "a project that will help uncover the most important influences that will shape our world to the year 2020"
NIC 2020 Project, Inaugural Workshop, Nov 2003, National Intelligence Council
Inaugural NIC 2020 Conference Summary (local copy)
NEW ! Mapping the Global Future, Dec 2004 - "based on consultations with nongovernmental experts around the world"
(local copy, entire report, 6.5 Mb)
(local copy, executive summary, 66 Kb)
- a follow-on to Global Trends 2015 and Global Trends 2010
- "regional and global scenarios will be developed that represent alternative futures"
- includes how regional participants view the United States (see pdf page 115)
Changing Nature of Warfare, 25 May 2004 - series of reports/presentations, including
The American Way of War through 2020 (local copy), by Gaffney, for the National Intelligence Council's NIC 2020 Project, 2004
Climate Change and Its Implications Through 2020 (local copy), Climate Change Conference summary, Jun 2004
Transforming Transformation -- Will it Change the Character of War? (local copy), by Cebrowski, May 2004
Virtuous Destruction, Decisive Speed (local copy), by Peters, May 2004 - "Attrition is the essence of warfare, not something to be avoided—and no rule says that attrition must be fairly distributed."
Lessons of Post-Cold War Conflict: Middle Eastern Lessons and Perspectives (local copy), by Cordesman, May 2004
Does the U.S. Face a Future of Never-ending Subnational & Transnational Violence? (local copy), by Barnett, May 2004
Strategic Reactions to American Preeminence: Great Power Politics in the Age of Unipolarity (local copy), by Ikenberry, July 2003
Frontiers of the Future: Madmen, Methods and Massive Change (local copy), by Gordon, Nov 2003 and slides
The Importance of "Wild Card" Scenarios (local copy), by Dewar
Lessons of History (local copy)
Nation-State Failure: A Recurring Phenomenon? (local copy)
Social Identity and the Roots of Future Conflict (local copy)
The Future of Force (local copy)
Assessing the Impact of Science and Technology Drivers in Regions (local copy)
Technology Adoption in Developing Countries: The Case of Genetically Modified Crops (local copy)
The Global Technology Revolution (local copy)
The Millennium Project: Global Futures Studies & Research, American Council for the United Nations University (ACUNU)
Globalization and the Nature of War (local copy), by Echevarria, SSI, Mar 2003
Global Trends for the Coming Decade and the Formulation of U.S. Foreign Policy (local copy), State Department, March 2002 - includes "seven themes that shape our world", listed below
The War on Terrorism
Globalization
Democratization
Alliances
New Partners and Allies
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Free Markets, Prosperity, and Development
Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for the United States (local copy), National Intelligence Estimate, 2001
Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment Experts (local copy), Dec 2000 report under direction of National Intelligence Council (NIC)
The key drivers identified are:
(l) Demographics.
(2) Natural resources and environment.
(3) Science and technology.
(4) The global economy and globalization.
(5) National and international governance.
(6) Future conflict.
(7) The role of the United States.
In examining these drivers, several points should be kept in mind:
No single driver or trend will dominate the global future in 2015.
Each driver will have varying impacts in different regions and countries.
The drivers are not necessarily mutually reinforcing; in some cases, they will work at cross-purposes.
Global Trends and the Implications of the 11 September Attacks (local copy), Jan 2002 speech by the chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) - reflecting on changes since the above Global Trends 2015 report came out
Global Trends 2010, Nov 1997 report under direction of National Intelligence Council (NIC)
Spotting the Losers: Seven Signs of Non-Competitive States, by Peters, in Parameters, Spring 1998
"They are as simple as they are fundamental, and they are rooted in culture. The greater the degree to which a state--or an entire civilization--succumbs to these "seven deadly sins" of collective behavior, the more likely that entity is to fail to progress or even to maintain its position in the struggle for a share of the world's wealth and power."
These key "failure factors" are:
Restrictions on the free flow of information.
The subjugation of women.
Inability to accept responsibility for individual or collective failure.
The extended family or clan as the basic unit of social organization.
Domination by a restrictive religion.
A low valuation of education.
Low prestige assigned to work.
World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB), Dept of Agriculture, includes impact of weather on world crops
Trends That Will Shape the World's Future, Caltech, lotsa graphs
The National Security Implications of Global Demographic Change (local copy), April 2002 speech by the chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC)
- includes "drivers we identified as being especially important", listed below
economics, including energy availability
demographics
natural resources and the environment
science and technology
national governance
nature of future conflicts
Digital Libraries: Universal Access to Human Knowledge (local copy), Feb 2001 report by President's Information Technology Advisory Committee (PITAC)
Long-Term Global Demographic Trends - Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscapte (local copy), July 2001 CIA paper
The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States (local copy), National Intelligence Estimate NIE 99-17D, Jan 2000
Sources of Future Conflict: Long-Range Security Implications of Key Regional and Global Trends, 1998 RAND Research Brief
Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century: Regional Futures and U.S. Strategy, ed. Khalilzad and Lesser, 1998 RAND report
Constant Conflict, by Peters, in Parameters, Summer 1997
Most citizens of the globe are not economists; they perceive wealth as inelastic, its possession a zero-sum game. If decadent America (as seen on the screen) is so fabulously rich, it can only be because America has looted one's own impoverished group or country or region. Adding to the cognitive dissonance, the discarded foreigner cannot square the perceived moral corruption of America, a travesty of all he has been told to value, with America's enduring punitive power. How could a nation whose women are "all harlots" stage Desert Storm? It is an offense to God, and there must be a demonic answer, a substance of conspiracies and oppression in which his own secular, disappointing elite is complicit. This discarded foreigner's desire may be to attack the "Great Satan America," but America is far away (for now), so he acts violently in his own neighborhood. He will accept no personal guilt for his failure, nor can he bear the possibility that his culture "doesn't work." The blame lies ever elsewhere. The cult of victimization is becoming a universal phenomenon, and it is a source of dynamic hatreds.
Future, in General & Predictions
In his book Profiles of the Future Arthur Clarke (1962) addresses the question of why people are not good at forecasting. He suggests two reasons – failures of nerve and failures of imagination. A failure of nerve is a failure to extrapolate a trend to its logical consequences. A failure of imagination is a failure to invent something that is technologically possible, but not yet present in society. Y2K has been a massive, worldwide failure of nerve – a failure to think a design decision through to its logical conclusions.
--- Stuart Umpleby, George Washington University, in "Why We Missed the Year 2000 Computer Problem," presented at the 11th International Conference on Systems Research, Informatics and Cybernetics, August 1999
see also global and regional trends
Predictions of the Future, posted by Google Directory
The Futurist magazine
Web 3.0 and beyond: the next 20 years of the internet, London Times Online, 24 Oct 2007
Silicon Valley has painted a picture of the web in 2030, and it is very powerful – and very smart – indeed
Net Assessment: A Practical Guide, by Bracken, in Parameters, Spring 2006
Future Studies - from Wikipedia
Sir Arthur C. Clarke's Laws of Prediction
In the 1962 and 1973 versions of his book Profiles of the Future, Clarke proposed the first three laws, and in the 1999 revision he added the fourth.
When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert.
Past Futures
Shock and Awe: America's 21st Century Maginot Line (local copy), by Dana, Naval War College paper, 2003 - looking back from 2012
Sir Arthur C. Clarke's predictions for 2001 to 2100 (scroll down), made in 1999, posted at THE CAMBRIDGE-CONFERENCE NETWORK (CCNet)
Historical Perspectives on Future War (local copy), by Baumann, in Military Review, Mar-Apr 1997
How We Lost the High-Tech War of 2007 , by Dunlap, in the Weekly Standard, 1996 but still valid perhaps
The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012, by Dunlap, in Parameters, Winter 1992-93
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be (local copy), by Rear Admiral Bill Rowley, incl past views of the future
Hart-Rudman Study Addendum, 400 Kb PDF file (local copy, PDF file) addresses how well predictions have done the past 25 years
Science The Endless Frontier (Local copy), A Report to the President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, July 1945
"... Vannevar Bush approach is no longer valid." (Local copy) - excerpt of Speaker Gingrich’s letter to Science Chairman Sensenbrenner, February 12, 1997
As We May Think, by Vannevar Bush - his vision, as Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, in July of 1945 of where science should/could go after the war
See also Sci-Tech History
Future of War
See 4th generation warfare below
See asymmetric warfare below
See alternative futures and other views/methods below
See transformation of war
See military theories
See future military education needs
See principles of war including thoughts and projects on future ones
55 Trends Now Shaping the Future of Terrorism (local copy), by Cetron and Davies, The Proteus Trends Series, Feb 2008
Hybrid War
Hybrid Wars (local copy), by McCuen, Military Review, Mar-Apr 2008
Conflict in the 21st Century: the Rise of Hybrid Wars, by Hoffman, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, Dec 2007
"How marines are preparing for hybrid wars,". by Hoffman, in Armed Forces Journal, March 2006
Human Terrain Mapping: a Critical First Step to Winning the COIN Fight (local copy), by Marr et al, Military Review, Mar-Apr 2008
A Demographic Theory of War: Population, power, and the 'slightly weird' ideas of Gunnar Heinsohn, by Clark Whelton, in the Daily Standard, 5 Oct 07
A New Division of Labor: Meeting America's Security Challenges Beyond Iraq, RAND report, 2007
Private Military Firms (PMFs)
The Long Global War Against Violent Extremism, Current Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and NATO Issues (local copy), 21 Feb 2006 Foreign Press Center briefing by BGen Kimmitt, Dep. Dir., Plans and Strategy, (J5), CENTCOM
Future Warfare Series - occasional papers by the USAF Counterproliferation Center
No. 32 - Osama's Wake: the Second Generation of al Qaeda - by Ward
Keeping Pace with the Revolution in Military Affairs: Operation Iraqi Freedom and the Challenge to Intelligence (local copy), by Nolte, in Studies in Intelligence, vol. 48, no. 1, 2004
Finally, it should be clear that the victory was only partly a technical or technologic victory. Peter Drucker has long argued that historians of the industrial revolution have placed too much attention on railroads, steam engines, and the like. Drucker, among others, emphasizes that the dominance of the West in and through the industrial revolution was more critically the dominance of administrative, organizational, and (in governmental terms) operational skills, which in turn permitted the intelligent and advantage-gaining deployment of technology.
Every indicator suggests that Operation Iraqi Freedom occurred in the midst of the RMA. Closer to the beginning than to the end? That is hard to say.
But the real revolution will be in judgment, decisionmaking, and other forms of behavior. The RMA, like the larger information revolution of which it is but one manifestation, is about institutions and organizations.
Saddam Hussein and his associates may have learned some lessons from the first Gulf War. In another manifestation of the RMA's Doppler effect--for this purpose, a misperception of American capability based on a misjudgment of the pace of change and innovation within the US military--it is less certain that any of those lessons provided usefully applicable information.
Much has been written over the last decade about the threat to the United States from asymmetric warfare, most of the literature implying, at least, that asymmetry is a condition inflicted upon the United States. How many examples does it take to convince us that: We are the asymmetric power. This should not lull us into complacency about the risk
of asymmetric attacks against the United States, its allies, or its interests. But the fact remains that our capacity to go asymmetric on our adversaries is part of America's strategic advantage of the 21st century. Ask the "elite" Republican Guards.
What are the potential implications of another decade of RMA? At its most basic level, we should assume that US personnel deployed in a major effort in 2010 should expect to have 20 times the bandwidth available during Iraqi Freedom (or 800-1000 times the bandwidth available in Desert Storm). We should further assume that other metrics--the definition of "precision;" the speed at which information is collected and processed; even our ability to distinguish collection, processing, and analysis as distinct phases of an information cycle; and the speed of decisions--will continue to change at blinding speed.
Change at this pace will put enormous pressure on planning and perception, resulting in a continued premium on innovation, improvisation, and information.
Secretary Rumsfeld Interview with Newt Gingrich, 13 July 2002
Future Warfare and the Decline of Human Decisionmaking, by Adams, in Parameters, Winter 2001
In short, the military systems (including weapons) now on the horizon will be too fast, too small, too numerous, and will create an environment too complex for humans to direct. Furthermore, the proliferation of information-based systems will produce a data overload that will make it difficult or impossible for humans to directly intervene in decisionmaking. This is not a consideration for the remote science-fiction future. Weapons and other military systems already under development will function at increasingly higher levels of complexity and responsibility--and increasingly without meaningful human intervention.
NDIA 2005 SO/LIC Symposium, focusing on future of coalition warfare and special ops
The Future of Coalition Warfare (local copy), presentation by Hon. Tom O'Connell, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Ops and LIC
Addressing the Political Warfare Challenge: the Requirement to Transform to Meet the New Threat (local copy), presentation by Eric Michael, of SAIC
Changing Nature of Warfare, 25 May 2004 workshop papers from the National Intelligence Council (NIC) 2020 project
Warfare in the 21st Century, bibliography, U.S. Army War College Library
Trends in Security Competition (local copy, 1.5 Mb), June 2004 briefing by Cebrowski, DoD Office of Force Transformation
slide 6 is a chart with vulnerability and likelihood as axes, listing the four challenges
traditional
irregular
catastrophic
disruptive
Confronting an Irregular and Catastrophic Future (local copy), by Freier, op-ed from Oct 2004 SSI newsletter
Adaptive Enemies: Achieving Victory by Avoiding Defeat (local copy), by Scales, in Joint Force Quarterly
USAF Counterproliferation Center books, including following
The War Next Time: Countering Rogue States and Terrorists Armed with Chemical and Biological Weapons, Schneider and Davis, Editors
Chapter 1 - Asymmetrical Rivals: the Enemy Next Time, by Barry R. Schneider
Chapter 2 - The Long War of the 21st Century, by R. James Woolsey - discusses the three main movements against us in what some have termed World War IV
The Homeland Security Papers: Stemming the Tide of Terror, Ritz, Hensley, and Whitmire, Editors
Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and Their Strategic Cultures, Schneider and Post, Editors
The Gathering Biological Warfare Storm, Davis and Schneider, Editors
A Nation at War in an Era of Strategic Change (local copy), ed. by Murray, SSI, Sep 2004
From Kadesh to Kandahar: Military Theory and the Future of War, by Evans, in Naval War College Review, Summer 2003
Future Warfare Anthology (local copy), ed. by Scales, SSI
Training for Future Conflicts (local copy), Defense Science Board report, 2003
The Immutable Nature of War, PBS, NOVA, interview with Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper
In Millennium Challenge 2002, a $250 million war game designed to test the new technologies and concepts of transformation and network-centric warfare-in which U.S. forces are data-linked with one another as never before-Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, former president of the Marine Corps University, was asked to command the "enemy" forces. In the first days of that mock battle, he used unconventional methods, including a preemptive attack that featured air-, sea-, and ground-launched cruise missiles to sink 16 American ships. After the American forces decided to refloat the ships and restart the game, Van Riper stepped aside from his role, contending that the rest of the game was scripted for American victory. In this interview, Van Riper explains the peril of placing too much faith in technology at the expense of a deeper understanding of the nature of war.
"The art of war and the science of war are not coequal. The art of war is clearly the most important. It's science in support of the art. Any time that science leads in your ability to think about and make war, I believe you're headed down a dangerous path."
Afghanistan and the Future of Warfare: Implications for the Army and Defense Policy (local copy), by Biddle, SSI, Nov 2002
Future Strategic Issues/Future Warfare [Circa 2025], by Bushnell, presentation at NDIA conference
The Shape Of Things to Come? Top NASA Scientist Discusses The Future of Undersea Warfare, by Bushnell
Peace is War, by Bruce Sterling, in Wired magazine, April 2002, pages 79-89 - examines the fighting of Space Wars I (Gulf), II (Yugoslavia), and III (began 9-11) -- and how the U.S. dominance of space figures into future warfare scenarios. He also examines 13 strategies our enemies might use against us, and why they're likely to fail. He also briefly looks at missile defense.
the future of war, Frontline show on PBS
Future Warfare and the Decline of Human Decisionmaking, by Adams, in Parameters, Winter 2001
Preparing for War in the 21st Century, by van Riper and Scales, in Strategic Review, Summer 1997
21st-Century Land Warfare: Four Dangerous Myths, by Dunlap, in Parameters, Autumn 1997
Myth #1: Our most likely future adversaries will be like us
Myth #2: We can safely downsize our military in favor of smaller, highly trained forces equipped with high-technology weapons
Myth #3: We can achieve information superiority and even dominance in future conflicts
Myth #4: Modern technology will make future war more humane if not bloodless
How We Lost the High-Tech War of 2007 , by Dunlap, in the Weekly Standard, 1996 but still valid perhaps
How will future wars be fought? by Toffler, in USA Today -- "If you have no strategy, you are very likely to become part of someone else’s strategy."
Armed Conflict in the 21st Century: the Information Revolution and Post-Modern Warfare (local copy), by Metz, SSI, 2000
So far thinking on the revolution in military affairs has focused on what might be called physical precision—the ability to hit targets with great accuracy from great distances with precisely the desired physical effect. Military strategists and commanders must come to think in terms of psychological precision as well: shaping a military operation so as to attain the desired attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions on the part of both the enemy and other observers, whether noncombatants in the area of operations or global audiences.
Today the American military is not as strong at psychological precision as it should be, in part because technological advantages appear to make psychological effectiveness unnecessary. The explanation, though, runs even deeper than that. For a nation composed of many cultures, the United States has never had a deep understanding of other cultures, perhaps because it was never a major colonial power. This has shown up whenever the U.S. military is engaged in cross-cultural conflict. Often American strategists “mirror image” the enemy and build their campaigns based on what they feel would cause Americans to surrender without taking into account the psychological differences between antagonists.
See also Counterinsurgency: Strategy and the Phoenix of American Capability (local copy), by Metz, SSI, 1995
See also The Future of Insurgency (local copy), by Metz, SSI, 1993 - discusses "spiritual" and "commercial" insurgencies
In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age, by Arquilla and Ronfeldt, RAND
Neocortical Warfare? The Acme of Skill (local copy), by Szafranski, in Military Review, as reprinted in In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age
This article argues that military power resides in the domain of the mind and the will; the provinces of choice, “thinking,” valuing or “attitude,” and insight or “imagination.” Further, it argues that, because of this, military power can increase in effectiveness even as it decreases in violence.
Swarming and the Future of Conflict, by Arquilla and Ronfeldt, RAND
Swarming on the Battlefield: Past, Present, and Future, by Edwards, a RAND study -- includes case studies and discussion of how swarming may figure into future doctrine
The United States and NATO: The Way Ahead, Gen. Wesley Clark, in Parameters, Winter 1999-2000
Global Trends and the Implications of the 11 September Attacks, speech by the chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC)
Sources of Future Conflict: Long-Range Security Implications of Key Regional and Global Trends, 1998 RAND Research Brief
Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century: Regional Futures and U.S. Strategy, ed. Khalilzad and Lesser, 1998 RAND report
Future War, Aerospace Campaigns in 2010, book by Barnett
Battlefield of the Future, book by Schneider, et al
Historical Perspectives on Future War (local copy), by Baumann, in Military Review, Mar-Apr 1997
Links Between Science and Philosophy and Military Theory: Understanding the Past, Implications for the Future, SAAS research paper
Clausewitzian Friction and Future War (local copy), by Watts, McNair Paper 52, Oct '96
Optimizing Future Battle Command Technologies (local copy), by Brig.Gen. Huba Wass de Czege and Major Jacob Biever, in Military Review
Knowledge-BasedWarfare: A Security Strategy for the Next Century (local copy), by Casper et al, in Joint Force Quarterly, Autumn 1996
The Culture of Future Conflict, by Peters, in Parameters, Winter 1995-96
Submarine Force of the Future
Afghanistan and Beyond: Reflections on the Future of Warfare (local copy), 1993, by Blank, for SSI
The Urbanization of Insurgency: The Potential Challenge to U.S. Army Operations, by Taw and Hoffman, RAND, 1994
Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) and Fifth
see also asymmetric warfare
Hammes
Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges (local copy), by Hammes, Military Review, May-Jun 2007
Insurgency: Modern Warfare Evolves into a Fourth Generation (local copy), by Hammes, Strategic Forum 214, Jan 2005
Fourth Generation Warfare resources listed by Defense and the National Interest
On Boyd, Bin Laden, and Fourth Generation Warfare as String Theory (local copy), paper by Osinga, published in John Olson, On New Wars, Oslo, 2007
Fourth-Generation War and Other Myths (local copy), by Echevarria, Strategic Studies Institute, Nov 2005
(abstract, at SSI site)
The Sling and the Stone: On War in the 21st Century, Sep 2004 book by Hammes
Understanding Fourth Generation War (local copy), by Lind, Military Review, Sep-Oct 2004
- also by Lind - Fifth Generation Warfare?
From what I have seen thus far, honest attempts to discover a Fifth Generation suggest that their authors have not fully grasped the vast change embodied in the Fourth Generation. The loss of the state’s monopoly, not only on war but also on social organization and first loyalties, alters everything. We are only in the earliest stages of trying to understand what the Fourth Generation means in full and how it will alter – or, in too many cases, end – our lives.
Attempting to visualize a Fifth Generation from where we are now is like trying to see the outlines of the Middle Ages from the vantage point of the late Roman Empire. There is no telescope that can reach so far. We can see the barbarians on the march. In America and in Europe, we already find them inside the limes and within the legions. But what follows the chaos they bring in their wake, only the gods on Mount Olympus can see. It may be worth remembering that the last time this happened, the gods themselves died.
Observing al Qaeda through the Lens of Complexity Theory: Recommendations for the National Strategy to Defeat Terrorism (local copy), by Beech, Army War College, July 2004
Iraq: Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) Swamp, by G.I. Wilson, 10 Mar 2004 (alternate source)
Fourth-Generation Warfare, by Vest, in The Atlantic Monthly, Dec 2001
The Evolution of War: The Fourth Generation, by Hammes, in Marine Corps Gazette, Sep 1994
Strategically, it attempts to directly change the minds of enemy policymakers. This change is not to be achieved through the traditional method of superiority on the battlefield. Rather it is to be accomplished through the superior use of all the networks available in the information age. These networks are employed to carry specific messages to enemy policymakers. A sophisticated opponent can even tailor the message to a specific audience and a specific strategic situation.
Tactically, fourth generation war will:
Be fought in a complex arena of low-intensity conflict.
Include tactics/techniques from earlier generations.
Be fought across the spectrum of political, social, economic, and military networks.
Be fought worldwide through these networks.
Involve a mix of national, international, transnational, and subnational actors.
Generations, Waves, and Epochs, by Bunker, in Airpower Journal, Spring 1996 - includes a discussion of the 1989 (updated 1994) theory that fourth generation warfare will be more dependent on ideas than on technology
Epochal Change: War Over Social and Political Organization, by Bunker, in Parameters, Summer 1997
Letters to Joint Force Quarterly, Spring 2000, including
The problem with Force XXI doctrine, its supporting force structure, and the personnel system is
the focus on a perfect opponent, an enemy with centralized command and conventional forces of armor, artillery, and aircraft. In this regard, the Army is preparing to refight Desert Storm. The emphasis on precision strikes, stealth, and other technological advances only makes sense in that light. However, this may not be the wave of the future. Michael
Howard has warned that the Western concept of long-range war puts the Army at a disadvantage against agrarian age forces which are willing to fight ruthlessly for a cause.We have already seen evidence of fourth generation warfare in Bosnia,
Rwanda, Somalia, Colombia, and Kosovo. Despite the setback of Somalia and slow deployment of adhoc, heavily laden units to Albania during the war in Kosovo, history is again repeating itself as the Army seeks to apply technological solutions, placed on top of old organizations and personnel systems, to battlefield problems.
Asymmetric Warfare - Exposing America's Weaknesses, by Kinneer, ACSC paper, Apr 2003 - see Chapter 2 Generations of War
The first three generations of warfare concentrated on enemy military forces whereas “The Fourth has a goal of collapsing the enemy internally rather than physically destroying him. Targets will include such things as the population’s support for the war and the enemy’s culture.” (from Lind, 1989) By taking the war to the people and generating unrest within a society a small group can make a large group do what they want. Fourth generation warfare is perfectly suited for terrorist organizations because they do not have to declare war upon the opponent and can strike where and when they want.
Future Warfare and the Decline of Human Decisionmaking, by Adams, in Parameters, Winter 2001
Fourth Generation Warfare - Why Canadian Forces Excel
, The Guardian, 27 Nov 2001
Polk, Robert B. "Fourth Generation Warfare and Its Impact on the Army." Army Command and General Staff College paper, 8 May 2000
McKenzie, Kenneth F., Jr. "Elegant Irrelevance: Fourth Generation Warfare." Autumn 1993
International
The Millennium Project: Global Futures Studies & Research, American Council for the United Nations University (ACUNU)
Chinese
see also Chinese warfare theory on Military Theory page
Thinking about China and War, by Record, in Aerospace Power Journal, Winter 2001
China Debates the Future Security Environment (local copy), NDU book, Jan 2000
Chinese Views of Future Warfare (local copy), NDU book
The Chinese Armed Forces in the 21st Century (local copy), SSI publication, Dec 1999
People's Liberation Army After Next (local copy), SSI publication, Aug 2000
The New Germany and Nuclear Weapons: Options for the Future, by Gose, in Airpower Journal
Asymmetric Conflict, Asymmetrical Warfare
see also Nolte article - "We are the asymmetric power"
see also global trends
see also 4th generation warfare
see threat analysis and assessment on Intelligence page
see non-state and sub-state actors on International Studies page
see Psychology and Ethics of Terrorism on Terrorism page
see Lessons Learned page
see Congressional Research Service reports on SOF
Asymmetric Warfare bibliography, Air University Library
Future Warfare Series - occasional papers by the USAF Counterproliferation Center
No. 32 - Osama's Wake: the Second Generation of al Qaeda - by Ward
Asymmetric Warfare - a long list of resources
Center for Asymmetric Warfare (CAW) "is a National Center dedicated to protecting US forces, citizens, and property against asymmetric threats"
Strategic Leader Readiness and Competencies for Asymmetric Warfare, by Williams, in Parameters, Summer 2003
Four Questions and Answers on Asymmetric Warfare, by Col Peter Faber, posted by the NATO Defense College
A Virtuous Warrior in a Savage World (local copy), by Dunlap (DOC file)
This essay argues that the asymmetries that the U.S. military will find “most vexing” are based not on technology, but on psychology. It contends that many future opponents will accept that they cannot match the quality or quantity of the American military machine and will instead aim to wage what might be characterized as “neo-absolutist war.” Neo-absolutist war is war without rules or scruples. It is a vicious, strategically-oriented form of conflict that extends across the spectrum of warfare. It differs from more traditional “total war” by, among other things, the propensity of the aggressor to focus not on destroying military forces, but rather on shattering the opponent’s will by any means possible, including methods that defy recognized standards of acceptable behavior in war.
Although American military leaders cannot resort to the tactics of neo-absolutist war, they must nevertheless be prepared to deal with those that do. Accordingly, this article will grapple with how best to prepare to prevail in such difficult circumstances while at the same time remaining true to the ideals of the virtuous warrior. It will not enumerate the many strategies that might be used to avoid such conflicts altogether. Rather, this effort will try to identify pragmatic considerations for U.S. military leaders already engaged with a neo-absolutist opponent. In short, it will attempt to provide guidance for the inevitable time when the virtuous warrior, the Sir Galahad model, meets the next Genghis Khan.
Naval Postgraduate School Center on Terrorism and Irregular Warfare (CTIW)
Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 21st Century: Reconceptualizing Threat and Response (local copy), by Metz and Millen, Strategic Studies Institute, Nov 2004
Rethinking Asymmetric Threats (local copy), by Blank, Strategic Studies Institute, Sep 2003
Doctrine for Asymmetric Warfare (local copy), by Ancker and Burke, in Military Review, July-Aug 2003
Airpower versus Asymmetric Enemies
- A Framework for Evaluating Effectiveness, by Clodfelter, in Air and Space Power Journal, Fall 2002
America's Frontier Wars: Lessons for Asymmetric Conflicts (local copy), by Congressman Ike Skelton, in Military Review, Sep-Oct 2001
Asymmetries and Consequences, by Szafranski, Toffler Associates
Thinking Asymmetrically in Times of Terror, by Colin S. Gray, in Parameters, Spring 2002
Is The U.S. Military Ready To Take On A Conventional Terror Threat?, by Grossman, Inside the Pentagon, 18 Oct 2002
Asymmetric Conflict 2010 (local copy), by Roberts, IDA project for DTRA
Back to the Future with Asymmetric Warfare, by Goulding, in Parameters, Winter 2000
The Revenge of the Melians: Asymmetric Threats and the Next QDR (local copy), by McKenzie, a McNair paper -- discusses definition of asymmetrical warfare and ten possible asymmetric threats
Waging Ancient War: Limits on Preemptive Force (local copy), by Worley, Feb 2003, for Strategic Studies Inst.
The New Craft of Intelligence: Achieving Asymmetric Advantage in the Face of Nontraditional Threats (local copy), by Steele, Feb 2002, for Strategic Studies Inst.
Deciphering Asymmetry's Word Game (local copy), by Thomas, in Military Review, July-August 2001
Strategic Asymmetry (local copy), by Metz, in Military Review, July-August 2001
Asymmetry and Adaptive Command (local copy), by Worley, in Military Review, July-August 2001
Internal Wars: Rethinking Problem and Response (local copy), by Manwaring, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, Sep 2001
Asymmetry and U.S. Military Strategy: Definition, Background, and Strategic Concepts (local copy), by Metz and Johnson, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, Jan 2001
Chaos, Warriors, & Barbarians
See also Warrior Societies and Non-US Philosophies of Peace and War on International Studies page
See also Chaos & Complexity on Theory page
Fighting Barbarians, by Tucker, in Parameters, Summer 1998 - including sections such as "Anarchy: Don't Worry About It"
Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)
see also Nolte article
See also Transformation of War/Military
See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion
Transformation and Transition: DARPA’s Role in Fostering an Emerging Revolution in Military Affairs Volume 1 – Overall Assessment, by Atta et al, Institute for Defense Analyses (IDE) report for DARPA, Apr 2003
The RMA Debate, sponsored by The Project on Defense Alternatives
Strategy and the Revolution in Military Affairs: From Theory to Policy (local copy), by Metz and Kievit, pub by Strategic Studies Institute, Army War College
Revolution in Military Affairs? Competing Concepts, Organizational Responses, Outstanding Issues, a Congressional Research Service Report
The Evolution in Military Affairs: Shaping the Future U.S. Armed Forces (local copy), by Lovelace, for Strategic Studies Institute
Information & Nuclear RMAs Compared (local copy), by Libicki, for Strategic Forum
Campaigning for Change: Organizing Processes, Governmental Politics, and the RMA, by Conley, in Air Power Journal
Professional Military Education and the Emerging Revolution in Military Affairs, by Kenney, in Air Power Journal
Space Power and the Revolution in Military Affairs: A Glass Half Full? by Gray and Sheldon, in Air Power Journal
News and Views
Global Trends and the Implications of the 11 September Attacks, speech by the chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC)
The Futurist magazine
Future Survey of trends, etc.
Journal of World-Systems Research
Plausible Futures Newsletter "News and Analysis for Future Studies & Scenario Planning"
MIT Technology Review
Science News online, weekly journal that condenses developments to a couple of understandable paragraphs, covers medicine and just about all areas of science
Educause Review -- conclusions not just applicable to education
Wired Magazine
Popular Science, some "future" stuff each issue
Popular Mechanics, some "future" stuff each issue
PC Magazine online
Smart Business, more business oriented technology
New Scientist magazine
Scientific American online
The National Academies, on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
KurzweilAI.net, current and future stuff on brain function and artificial intelligence development
See also sci-tech publications on Science and Technology page
See also computer publications on Science and Technology page
Studies Online
See also future studies & reports page at CSAT
Imagining the Internet: a History and Forecast, Elon University & Pew Internet Project - surveys of social and technology leaders about their thoughts on the impact and future of the internet
21st Century Strategic Technology Vectors, Defense Science Board 2006 Summer Study
Vol. I - Main Report, released Feb 2007
Vol. II - Critical Capabilities and Enabling Technologies, released Feb 2007
Vol. III - Strategic Technology Planning, released Feb 2007
Vol. IV - Accelerating the Transition of Technologies into U.S. Capabilities, released April 2007
The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications, by Silverglitt et al, RAND Technical Report, 2006
The Global Technology Revolution 2020, Executive Summary: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications
, RAND study, 2006
Exploration and Development of the National Conflict Studies Institute Concept (local copy), 22 Mar 2005 report prepared for DTRA
U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (Local copy), 1998-2001 Hart-Rudman Commission
Study Addendum, 400 Kb PDF file (local copy, PDF) addresses how well predictions have done the past 25 years
NIC 2020 Project, National Intelligence Council - "a project that will help uncover the most important influences that will shape our world to the year 2020"
AF Scientific Advisory Board list of studies, including those on a space roadmap, info management for the warrior, expeditionary air forces, UAVs, global navigation, and more
New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st Century, by AF Scientific Advisory Board (Local copy of summary volume)
UAV Study (Local copy, except videos)
A Space Roadmap for the 21st Century Aerospace Force Volume 1: Summary, 1,900 Kb PDF file (local copy)
Information Management to Support the Warrior Report, 1,700 Kb PDF file (local copy)
Global Air Navigation Systems Study
Global Air Navigation Systems Study - Volume 1, 166 Kb PDF file (local copy)
Global Air Navigation Systems Study - Volume 2, 1,100 Kb PDF file (local copy)
Air Force Expeditionary Forces Study
Air Force Expeditionary Forces Study - Volume 1, 2,000 Kb PDF file (local copy)
Air Force Expeditionary Forces Study - Volume 2, 3,000 Kb PDF file (local copy)
Air Force Expeditionary Forces Study - Volume 3, 2,600 Kb PDF file (local copy)
Air Force 2025
AF 2025 Executive Summary
SpaceCast 2020
Professional Military Education in 2020, from SpaceCast 2020 project, condensed for Airpower Journal
Future Studies, many for Europe, from Alpha to Omega in UK
Related Reports
See also NIC 2020 reports
Advisory Committee on Transformational Diplomacy: Final Report of the State Department in 2025 Working Group (local copy)
Breakthrough Air Force Capabilities Spawned by Basic Research (Local copy), by Berry and Loeb, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, NDU, April 2007
The Millennium Project: Global Futures Studies & Research, American Council for the United Nations University (ACUNU) - check the reports section for State of the Future and Futures Research Methodologies
Global Trends and the Implications of the 11 September Attacks, speech by the chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC)
Conducting a Conflict Assessment: A Framework for Analysis and Program Development (local copy), Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation - Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance - U.S. Agency for International Development, 2004
Preparing for the 21st Century, An Appraisal of U.S. Intelligence, by the Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the United States Intelligence Community
Blue Horizon: US - Japan - PRC Tripartite Relations, NDU book online
Organizations and Projects
Association of Professional Futurists (APF)
Proteus Management Group, U. S. Army, Carlisle Barracks, Penn.
"The Proteus Management Group (PMG) will promote further discourse, study and research, focusing on the refinement, development and application of Proteus Insights (PI) and other PI related new and emerging “futures” concepts, methods, processes and scenarios...."
USMC Center for Emerging Threats and Opportunities (CETO)
USMC Small Wars Center of Excellence
UN Millenium Development Goals
FBI Futures Working Group (FWG)
Police Futurists International (PFI)
RAND
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis - RAND report
RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition
RAND Pardee Center Publications: Futures Methodologies
Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Foresight and Governance Project, Woodrow Wilson Center
MIT Media Lab
Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), birthplace of most current desktop characteristics
World Future Society
Wisdom of the World, quotes for the new millenium
The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Centre for Strategic Management
Santa Fe Institute, specializing in the study of complex systems and "emerging science"
The Long Now Foundation, encouraging long-term thinking and responsibility, 10,000 year clock
Centre for Future Studies
World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF)
Institute for Future Studies (IFS) - in English and German
Institute for the Study of Accelerating Change (ISAC)
Institute for the Future (IFTF), business focused
IFTF's Future Now - emerging technologies and their social implications
Edge - The World Question Center - both well-known and not so well-known contributors answer an annual question such as "WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IS TRUE EVEN THOUGH YOU CANNOT PROVE IT?" - with interesting asides and tangential issues addressed
Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, NJ
Toffler Associates, the Third Wave Firm
Institute for Alternative Futures
Coates & Jarratt Online, dedicated to the study of the future
Finland Futures Research Centre
Future Connections, market research company focused on global political and economic conditions
Global Learning Communities, education futurists
Foresight Nanotech Institute
National Human Genome Research Institute, National Institutes of Health
Schools & Courses & Education
Degree programs in future studies
Hawaii Research Center for Future Studies, U. of Hawaii
"We do offer MA and PhD degrees in political science with a concentration in Alternative Futures. The MA especially is intended to enable one to work as a consulting futurist. Part of the MA is a year's internship with some futurist firm--usually the Institute for Alternative Futures in Alexandria, Virgina. The point of the internship is to learn how to be a
successful consulting futurist, and to make some contacts so you can actually work as one later.
"There is also another place you should inquire--the Program on the Future of the University of Houston at Clear Lake. They offer a MS in the Study of the Future--the only purely futures degreee offered in the US."
Futures Studies Master's Program, U. of Houston
Forecasting Principles, U. of Penn. - "site summarizes all useful knowledge about forecasting so that it can be used by researchers, practitioners, and educators"
The Millennium Project: Global Futures Studies & Research, American Council for the United Nations University (ACUNU)
Think Tanks
See also International Studies Think Tanks list
See also Air University Think Tank resources page
TechCast - "a virtual think tank tracking the technology revolution"
Our researchers scan the literature and media, interview authorities, and draw on other sources to identify emerging trends and other background data on each technology. This data is summarized in a "Breakthrough Analysis" used to guide the estimates of technology officers, scientists and engineers, scholars, and other experts. Results are automatically aggregated to forecast the most likely year each breakthrough will occur, the potential economic demand, and confidence level.
Think Tanks in a Time of Crisis -- FAIR's 2001 survey of the media's institutional experts, Mar/Apr 2002 article which attempts to show leanings, liberal/progressive or conservative, from FAIR
The Think Tank Spectrum -- For the Media, Some Thinkers Are More Equal Than Others, 1996 article which attempts to show leanings, liberal/progressive or conservative, from FAIR
economic think tanks
Goldwater Institute
Cyberspace Policy Center
Progress & Freedom Foundation "Studying the Digital Revolution and its implications for public policy"
Terrorism Research Center
World Water Council
Da Vinci Institute "a futurist think tank dedicated to uncovering emerging technology with far reaching implications"
Scenarios and Scenario Planning
see also storytelling, the power of narrative, on AWC Communication Skills page
see also NIC 2020, from National Intelligence Council (NIC)
The Importance of "Wild Card" Scenarios (local copy), National Intelligence Council NIC 2020 project
Theaters of Future Conflict: Creating, developing and writing future war scenarios
for 21st century strategy and doctrine analysis, syllabus of 2001 elective taught by Ritz, USAF Counterproliferation Center
Shell Global Scenarios 2025 - executive summary and excerpts available online
People and Connections - Shell Global Scenarios to 2020 - public summary
Using Scenarios for Strategic Planning (local copy), USDA - a quick overview
About Scenario Planning, Federal Highway Administration
The premise of scenario planning is that it is better to get the future imprecisely right than to get the future precisely wrong. We know that our predictions of the future are never exactly correct. Rather than picking one definitive picture of the future and planning for that future, scenario planning allows a region to consider various possibilities and identify policies that can adapt to changing circumstances. Scenarios do not describe a forecasted end state. Scenarios are stories about future conditions that convey a range of possible outcomes.
The scenario planning process can help people understand the forces of change and the collective choices they have.
Research the driving forces. Define the major sources of change that impact the future. These forces can be either predictable or not predictable elements. ....
Determine patterns of interaction. Consider how the driving forces could combine to determine future conditions. To determine the patterns of interaction between driving forces, a matrix can be developed. ....
Create scenarios. In generating scenarios, planners should think through the implications of different strategies in different future environments. The goal is to bring life to the scenarios in a way that community stakeholders can easily recognize and connect the various components. Basic stories are created based upon the interaction of drivers described in the previous step and how these drivers affect local factors. Scenarios might challenge existing thought patterns.
Analyze their implications. Ultimately, scenario planning is a technique for better decision making, .... The use of graphic visual information assists in helping the public understand the potential impacts of scenarios.
Evaluate Scenarios. The devised scenarios are measured against each other by comparing indicators ....
Monitor indicators. Scenario Planning is an on-going process for a region. As the future unfolds, reality needs to be assessed compared to the selected scenarios, new scenarios developed and new decisions or policies made to address changing conditions.
Planning for the Unknown (local copy), presentation by Jonietz and Stroh, Los Alamos National Laboratory - looking at combining the Delphi method with scenarios to do future planning for specific project
global scenarios from the Millenium Project, ranging from the near future to all the way out to the year 3000 - includes an overview of the scenario process
Methodologies for Studying Change and the Future
How to Build Scenarios, by Wilkinson, in Wired
Inventing the Organizations of the 21st Century, MIT Sloan School of Management
Two Scenarios for 21st Century Organizations: Shifting Networks of Small Firms or All-Encompassing "Virtual Countries"?, by Laubacher et al, Sloan School of Management, MIT
Illustrative Scenario - Taiwan situation in 2016 at CSBA online
Scenario-Based Decision Making Technique by van der Werff
Scenario Planning Steps
Scenario-Based System Studies, NASA
Plausible Futures Newsletter "News and Analysis for Future Studies & Scenario Planning"
Scenario Planning annotated links
Modeling Behavior of the Cyber-Terrorist, appendix C of RAND study CF163, Aug 2000
7 war scenarios every investor must consider, MSN.com, Nov 2, 2001
Potential Effects of Electronic Dissemination of Chemical Worst Case Scenarios Data (local copy), February 10, 1999, Congressional testimony
Alternate or Alternative Futures
Alternate Futures for 2025: Security Planning to Avoid Surprise (local copy), from AF 2025 study
includes methodology used
Institute for Alternative Futures
Alternative Futures in War and Conflict, by Renner, in Naval War College Review, Autumn 2000
Alternative Futures in War and Conflict - Implications for U.S. National Security in the Next Century (local copy), by Dombrowski, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Apr 2000
Strategic Horizons: the Military Implications of Alternative Futures (local copy), by Metz, (Army) Strategic Studies Institute
Alternative World Scenarios for a New Order of Nations (local copy), by Taylor, (Army) Strategic Studies Institute
The Age of Revolutions (local copy), Lieutenant General Claudia Kennedy, for SSI -- includes four alternative futures
Task Force on Alternative Futures for the Department of Energy National Laboratories, aka the Galvin Report, 1995 - includes series of white papers
The Alternate View columns by John Cramer, in Analog magazine
Views of and Ways to Look at the Future
Analytical Methodologies bibliography, National Intelligence Council
Concept Development for Future Domains: A New Method of Knowledge Elicitation (local copy), by Lussier and Hinkle, Army Research Institute report, June 2005
During the development of operational concepts for the Future Combat System of Systems’ Unit of Employment and Unit of Action it became clear that the Army needed a more effective and efficient method for envisioning the future.
... This report reviews existing methods and describes a new method of knowledge elicitation to more effectively support the development of future concepts, evaluate the impact of new technology, and solve difficult problems where information and expertise is dispersed among many individuals.
Introduction to Future Studies
Future Studies: An Interdisciplinary Vehicle for Space Science Education, NASA, including brief overview of surveys, Delphi technique, statistics, scenarios, analogies, etc. (local copy)
Inventing the Organizations of the 21st Century, MIT Sloan School of Management
Two Scenarios for 21st Century Organizations: Shifting Networks of Small Firms or All-Encompassing "Virtual Countries"?, by Laubacher et al, Sloan School of Management, MIT
Future Leadership, Old Issues, New Methods (local copy), ed. Johnson, SSI compilation of papers addressing leadership needs 30 years out
Which World will our children and grandchildren inherit?, by Hammond
Chronicle of the Future, from now to 2050
The World of 2088, U. of Wash. - "Looking Ahead, UW Experts Envision Internet Implants, a Colony on Mars, Obsolete Books and the End of the United States"
The Alternate View columns by John Cramer, in Analog magazine
The Emerging RMA at CSBA online
Vernor Vinge's Singularity - a sudden change in our understanding of science leads to a post-human era
Singularity resources in Google Directory
The Socio-technological Singularity, article at the Principia Cybernetica Web site
Vinge himself would situate the date of the singularity between 2010 and 2040. His reasoning is based on the accelerating growth of computer-aided intelligence. Rather than considering the IQ of an isolated individual, he would look at the team formed by a person and computer. According to Vinge, a PhD armed with an advanced workstation should already be able to solve all IQ tests ever devised. Since computing power undergoes a rapid exponential growth, we will soon reach the stage where the team (or perhaps even the computer on its own) would reach superhuman intelligence. Vinge defines this as the ability to create even greater intelligence than oneself. That is the point at which our understanding, which is based on the experience of our own intelligence, must break down.
A related reasoning was proposed by Jacques Vallée. Extrapolating from the phenomenal growth of computer networks and their power to transmit information, he noted that at some point all existing information would become available instantaneously everywhere. This is the "information singularity".
These models should not be taken too literally. They are metaphors, proposed to stimulate reflection.
The point to remember, however, is that abstract, non-material variables, such as intelligence, information, or innovation, aren't subjected to the same "limits to growth" which characterize the exhaustion of finite resources. Such variables could conceivably reach values which for all practical purposes may be called "infinite". Several parallel trends show a hyperbolic type of acceleration which seems to reach its asymptote (the point of infinite speed) somewhere in the first half of the 21st century. This does not mean that actual infinity will be reached, only that a fundamental transition is likely to take place. This will start a wholly new mode of development, governed by laws which we cannot as yet guess.
Understanding and Using SIAM (local copy), by Sands and Hayes, Naval War College, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Decision Support Department - about the influence net modeling tool called Situational Influence Assessment Module (SIAM)
Innovation Adoption - Diffusion Model(s)
See also Disruptive Technologies & Disruptive Innovation on this page
See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion on Transformation of War page
See also Creativity and Innovation on Thinking Skills page
Hype Cycle - A Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies. - developed by Gartner Consulting in 1995
five phases [from Gartner website]
Technology Trigger - The first phase of a Hype Cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
Peak of Inflated Expectations - In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
Trough of Disillusionment - Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
Slope of Enlightenment - Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
Plateau of Productivity - A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.
Breakthrough Air Force Capabilities Spawned by Basic Research (Local copy), by Berry and Loeb, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, NDU, April 2007
Smart Operations 21 office formed at Pentagon (Local copy), by Lopez, AF Print News, 12 May 2006
The Air Force Smart Operations 21 office, created in response to an initiative by Secretary of the Air Force Michael W. Wynne, will look at process improvement across the service.
Senior leaders designed the program specifically for the Air Force, and it is based on similar industry process improvement practices like Lean, Six Sigma and Theory of Constraints.
General Gilbert said Air Force leaders have identified 10 main processes divided into three areas: governing, core and enabling. The processes are: planning and executing strategic initiatives, managing processes and programs, developing and sustaining warfighting capability, deploying personnel and materials, conducting kinetic and related operations, conducting non-kinetic and related operations, caring for people, providing information support systems, caring for infrastructure and managing financial resources.
Delivering Innovation: The Joint Concept Development and
Experimentation Campaign Plan FY2004-2011 (local copy), prepared by Commander, US Joint Forces Command for the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2003-2004
Managing Strategic Change: an Executive Overview (local copy), by Murphy, U.S. Army War College, June 2003
Technology Administration: 21st Century Policy Challenges for American Innovation Leadership (local copy), 23 Oct 2003 remarks by Bruce P. Mehlman, Assistant Secretary for Technology Policy, United States Department of Commerce
It took 55 years after the commercial introduction of the automobile before 25% of the U.S. population owned cars. Electricity did not reach one-quarter of Americans until 46 years after its introduction. Telephones took 35 years, televisions 26 years, and personal computers 15. Cell phones proved faster, reaching one-quarter adoption in 13 years, while the Internet took just 7 years, and broadband is on track to reach 25% penetration in only 6 years, according to McKinsey.
Sunk Costs Sink Innovation, by Pierce, in Proceedings, May 2002
Workshop Introducing Innovation and Risk: Implications of Transforming the Culture of DoD (local copy), by Johnson, Office of Force Transformation
includes sections on
Defining a Transformational Culture
Obstacles to Culture Change
Methods for Cultural Change
Strategic Communications
Innovation: from Getting It to Getting It Done (local copy, PPT, 3.1 Mb), briefing by Kao, Office of Force Transformation
(PDF file, 360 Kb)
"The future is a design problem"
“Adapt or Die” - The Imperative for a Culture of Innovation in the United States Army (local copy), by Fastabend and Simpson
"Culture changes only after you have successfully altered people’s actions, after the new behavior produces some group benefit for a period of time.”- - John Kotter, Harvard Business School
Welcome to the Next Industrial Revolution (local copy), NSF presentation by Rejeski, Sep 2003 - quick exposure to variety of laws, theories, learning paradigms, analogies, etc.
Vision to Victory - Space, Mahan, and Mitchell: the Role of the Visionary in Cross-Organizational Innovation, by Gaudlip, SAAS thesis
New Foundations for Growth: The U.S. Innovation System Today and Tomorrow - RAND report, executive summary
Georgia Tech innovation resources
Council on Competitiveness, with materials such as National Innovation Initiative (NII) reports
Leadership Styles for the Five Stages of Radical Change (local copy), by Reardon, Reardon, and Rowe, in Acquisition Review Quarterly, discusses the leadership styles best suited to each phase of the change process - (phases listed below)
planning
enabling
launching
catalyzing
maintaining
Radical Change by Entrepreneurial Design(local copy), by Roberts, in Acquisition Review Quarterly, "opens with a typology that defines change in terms of its pace and scope, and defines radical change as the swift transformation of an entire system."
Leadership: Creativity and Innovation (local copy), Dr William R. Klemm
Technology Adoption and Diffusion (local copy), by Carr, for NLM, explains several diffusion/adoption theories
Information Technology Diffusion: A Comparative Case Study of Intranet Adoption (local copy), by Zolla, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) -- side-by-side comparison between NPS and Sandia Labs
Assessing Your Organization's Innovation Capabilities, by Christensen
Disruptive Technologies - simple innovations which change the market and cause well-run industry giants to fall
The Great Disruption, by Christensen et al, in Foreign Affairs, Mar-Apr 2001
Transformation Trends—3 July Issue (local copy)
Innovation Rules of the Road—Innovation isn’t a random occurrence, but can be seen taking place within the context of a common set of variables, says Clayton Christensen, author of the seminal work The Innovator’s Dilemma. Writing in the June issue of Technology Review, Christensen says the four sets of variables guiding the risk of innovation are:
take root in disruptive technologies that industry giants are not concerned about;
pick the scope of integration required to succeed;
leverage the right capabilities of managers and money;
disrupt competitors and not consumers of the new innovation.
A Preliminary Model of Internet Diffusion within Developing Countries, by Bazar and Boalch, paper presented to the Third Australian World Wide Web Conference, 5-9 July 1997
False-Failed Innovation (local copy), by Wilmoth, in Joint Force Quarterly, Autumn-Winter 1999-2000
"... the false-failed innovation—a technology that is examined and discarded but that gets a second chance under other conditions and succeeds."
How Hierarchies Fail Innovation, by Valikangas and Hamel, in Internal Markets - Emerging Governance Structures for Innovation, Strategos Institute, 2001
"Creativity is a function of enthusiasm and ownership of innovation. Yet in what sense, if any, can a corporation allocate entrepreneurial energy and passion? If creativity is the scarcest resource of all intangible assets that corporations may want to own, top-down allocational processes seem entirely inadequate. Creative passion - a likely necessary ingredient in effective innovation - cannot be allocated or commanded. Hierarchies seem singularly incapable of arousing such passion for the corporate future."
New Paradigms:
Innovative Forms of Organization, interview with Liisa Valikangas, in Leader to Leader, Summer 2002
identifies three emerging organizational forms "that have the potential to alter the competitive landscape in significant ways"
Peer-to-Peer Organizations
Social Network-Supported Organization
Open Source Organizations
The Diffusion of Innovations Model and Outreach from the National Network of Libraries of Medicine to Native American Communities (local copy), by Rogers and Scott, U. of NM, paper for National Network of Libraries of Medicine - with graphs using internet and other innovations as examples
An innovation is an idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption. ... Why do certain innovations spread more quickly than others? The characteristics which determine an innovation's rate of adoption are:
Relative advantage is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as better than the idea it supersedes. The degree of relative advantage may be measured in economic terms, but social prestige, convenience, and satisfaction are also important factors. It does not matter so much if an innovation has a great deal of objective advantage. What does matter is whether an individual perceives the innovation as advantageous. The greater the perceived relative advantage of an innovation, the more rapid its rate of adoption will be.
Compatibility is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being consistent with the existing values, past experiences, and needs of potential adopters. An idea that is incompatible with the values and norms of a social system will not be adopted as rapidly as an innovation that is compatible. The adoption of an incompatible innovation often requires the prior adoption of a new value system, which is a relatively slow process.
Complexity is the degree to which an innovation is perceived as difficult to understand and use. Some innovations are readily understood by most members of a social system; others are more complicated and will be adopted more slowly. New ideas that are simpler to understand are adopted more rapidly than innovations that require the adopter to develop new skills and understandings.
Trialability is the degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis. New ideas that can be tried on the installment plan will generally be adopted more quickly than innovations that are not divisible. An innovation that is trialable represents less uncertainty to the individual who is considering it for adoption, who can learn by doing.
Observability is the degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others. The easier it is for individuals to see the results of an innovation, the more likely they are to adopt it. Such visibility stimulates peer discussion of a new idea, as friends and neighbors of an adopter often request innovation-evaluation information about it.
In summary, then, innovations that are perceived by individuals as having greater relative advantage, compatibility, trialability, observability, and less complexity will be adopted more rapidly than other innovations.
There are five adopter categories, or classifications of the members of a social system on the basis on their innovativeness:
Innovators are the first 2.5 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation
Early adopters are the next 13.5 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation
Early majority is the next 34 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation
Late majority is the next 34 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation
Laggards are the last 16 percent of the individuals in a system to adopt an innovation
A Primer in Diffusion of Innovations Theory, by Clarke -- short and to the point, with the stages of innovation, characteristics of innovation, adopter categories, and roles in the innovation process
the stages through which a technological innovation passes
knowledge (exposure to its existence, and understanding of its functions);
persuasion (the forming of a favourable attitude to it);
decision (commitment to its adoption);
implementation (putting it to use); and
confirmation (reinforcement based on positive outcomes from it)
Chart of the spread of products into American households (local copy), from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 1996 annual report - also includes vocabulary changes since spread of personal computers
Dates in the History of Cultural Technology - from alphabets to television
Disruptive Technologies & Disruptive Innovation
See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion section above
See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion on Transformation of War page
See also Creativity and Innovation on Thinking Skills page
Red Cell Analysis of Disruptive Technologies, Identification of Potential Adversary Systems, and Technologies to Disrupt U.S. Naval Operations, research project by Osmundson et al, Naval Postgraduate School
Rethinking Innovation: Disruptive Technology and Strategic Response (local copy), interview with Dr Terry Pierce, in Strategic Insights, Apr 2005
Dr Terry Pierce, CAPT USN. Warfighting and Disruptive Technologies: Disguising Innovation, London: Frank Cass Publishers, 2004.
Warfighting and Disruptive Technologies: Disguising Innovation (local copy), presentation by Dr Terry Pierce, CAPT USN, Office of Naval Research conference, 2004
Sustaining vs. Disruptive Innovation (local copy), presentation by Dr Terry Pierce, CAPT USN, Office of Naval Research conference, 2004
Innovation: from Getting It to Getting It Done (local copy), briefing by Kao, Office of Force Transformation
(PDF file, 360 Kb)
"The future is a design problem"
"Design embeds disruptive innovation as an organizational process"
"Innovation must be designed."
The Great Disruption, by Christensen et al, in Foreign Affairs, Mar-Apr 2001
Transformation Trends-3 July Issue (local copy)
Innovation Rules of the Road-Innovation isn’t a random occurrence, but can be seen taking place within the context of a common set of variables, says Clayton Christensen, author of the seminal work The Innovator’s Dilemma. Writing in the June issue of Technology Review, Christensen says the four sets of variables guiding the risk of innovation are:
take root in disruptive technologies that industry giants are not concerned about;
pick the scope of integration required to succeed;
leverage the right capabilities of managers and money;
disrupt competitors and not consumers of the new innovation.
Disruptive Technologies - simple innovations which change the market and cause well-run industry giants to fall
additional resources
Levels & Stages of Change
See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion section above
See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion on Transformation of War page
See also Creativity and Innovation on Thinking Skills page
The 7 Levels of Change, by Rolf Smith, Summit Publishing Group, 1997 - nice quick read, with examples, tools, etc.
Continuous Improvement
Level 1 - Effectiveness - Doing the right thing
Level 2 - Efficiency - Doing the right things right
Level 3 - Improving - Doing things better
Process Reengineering
Level 4 - Cutting - Doing away with things
Level 5 - Copying - Doing things other people are doing
Breakout and Breakthrough
Level 6 - Different - Doing things no one else is doing
Level 7 - Impossible - Doing things that can't be done
Leadership Styles for the Five Stages of Radical Change (local copy), by Reardon, Reardon, and Rowe, in Acquisition Review Quarterly, discusses the leadership styles best suited to each phase of the change process - (phases listed below)
planning
enabling
launching
catalyzing
maintaining
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